A Bigger Holiday Retail Sales Season Than Last Year
Holiday retail sales are projected to reach new highs in 2026: Deloitte's annual forecast, released September 10, 2026, puts the figure at $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion for the November 2026 through January 2027 period, an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% over the same months a year earlier [1]. That would top the $1.63 trillion in sales recorded during the same stretch in 2025, when holiday sales grew 4.1% year over year [1].
Deloitte ties its confidence to disposable personal income, which it expects to grow 4.5% to 5.2% during the season, a figure the firm treats as a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce demand [1]. The call comes roughly 11 weeks before Black Friday, the traditional start of peak shopping, and Deloitte is not the only forecaster expecting 2026 to match or beat 2025 [1].
That bar is already high. The National Retail Federation had forecast that November-December 2025 sales would grow 3.7% to 4.2%, to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, the first holiday season above $1 trillion [3]. The actual season came in at 4.1% growth, near the top of that forecast [5]. Every forecast for 2026 is now measured against a season NRF expected to break the trillion-dollar mark, and that landed at the top of its range.
How Does Bain's Forecast Compare?
Bain & Company's own 2026 holiday forecast, released a week before Deloitte's, projects a 4.5% year-over-year increase that would push U.S. holiday sales above $1 trillion for the first time under its methodology, ahead of the 3.5% growth Bain recorded for 2025 [2]. Bain cautions that more than half of that nominal growth reflects inflation rather than unit volume [2].
“While U.S. retailers have reason to rejoice this holiday season as the industry reaches the trillion-dollar milestone for the first time, there are underlying factors that will temper bottom lines.”
The two forecasts use different windows and definitions, which is why the dollar figures do not line up exactly, but the direction agrees: a bigger season than 2025, with inflation doing a meaningful share of the work. Bain expects furniture, electronics and food and beverage sales to stay largely flat, while general merchandise, clothing and e-commerce see both higher prices and higher unit volumes [2].
| Forecast | Period | Total sales | YoY growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte [1] | Nov 2026-Jan 2027 | $1.70T-$1.71T | 4.0%-4.8% |
| Bain & Company [2] | Nov-Dec 2026 | Tops $1T for the first time | 4.5% |
| NRF, 2025 season (for context) | Nov-Dec 2025 | $1.01T-$1.02T forecast [3] | 4.1% actual [5] |
E-commerce and AI Are Doing the Heavy Lifting
Digital channels are again growing faster than the season as a whole. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales up 7.5% to 8.4%, nearly double the 4.0% to 4.8% pace of total retail sales, reaching between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion [1].
Bain's consumer survey points to the same shift from a different angle. Non-store retail sales are projected to grow 9% year over year, up from 7% in 2025, and to generate 60% of Bain's projected overall sales growth, up from 50% last year, even though in-store purchases still account for 70% of total holiday revenue [2].
AI is changing where that digital demand originates. Bain's survey found 24% of shoppers now plan to start their holiday research on AI platforms such as Claude, Gemini or ChatGPT, up from 17% in 2025, while 60% plan to start on retail or brand websites, up from 51%, and 13% expect to use a retailer's own AI agent [2].
Separately, retailers preparing for the 2026 season report that traffic referred by AI sources grew through 2025 and into 2026, with conversion rates on that traffic improving in the first quarter of the year [4].
What Should Commerce Teams Prioritize Before Peak?
Retailers are starting peak-season planning earlier and treating it as more than an inventory exercise, extending the runway to marketing, promotions and fulfillment commitments well before the Cyber Five [4]. Bain recommends four tactics for retailers looking to outperform this season [2]:
For commerce and IT leaders, the operational reading is straightforward. E-commerce growth is consistently outrunning total retail growth in every forecast cited here. AI-originated traffic is now large enough to affect conversion planning, and non-store channels are expected to carry most of the season's new growth [1] [2] [4].
Platforms, catalog data and checkout flows need to be ready for that mix well before Black Friday, not adjusted after the fact.
- Price with precision. AI-enabled comparison shopping makes pricing gaps easy for consumers to find, so price positioning needs to be deliberate rather than reactive [2].
- Build assortment that resists cross-shopping. Products and bundles that are hard to price-match line for line protect margin better than commodity items do [2].
- Win the big shopping days. More than 90% of shoppers plan to spend during at least one major sale event this season, from October promotions through Cyber Monday [2].
- Use AI to strengthen the experience, not just the funnel. Emotional stakes are high for holiday shoppers, and a poor experience carries into the following year's shopping behavior [2].
Sources
- [1]Forbes, Holiday Retail Sales Expected To Hit $1.7 Trillion This Year — forbes.com
- [2]Chain Store Age, Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time — chainstoreage.com
- [3]NRF, NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025 — nrf.com
- [4]Digital Commerce 360, Ecommerce Trends: 3 ways online retailers are preparing for the 2026 holiday season — digitalcommerce360.com
- [5]NRF, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor's December Data Shows Strong Holiday Season Spending — nrf.com
