How Big Is Retail Media Right Now?
Retail media is one of the fastest-growing lines in US advertising, and almost none of that growth belongs to the retailers actually building new networks this year.
US advertisers spent $60.32 billion on retail media in 2025. EMarketer expects that to reach $71.09 billion in 2026, a 17.8% jump that outpaces growth in both social and search advertising [1].
Almost all of the increase goes to two companies. Amazon Ads held 79.7% of the US retail media market in 2025, with Walmart Connect a distant second at 8.0% and Target Roundel at 1.5% [1]. EMarketer's forecast is blunt about what that means for 2026: Amazon and Walmart alone will capture 89% of the category's incremental spending [1].
That last row is where the actual news is happening.
| Retail media player | 2025 US market share |
|---|---|
| Amazon Ads | 79.7% |
| Walmart Connect | 8.0% |
| Target Roundel | 1.5% |
| Every other retailer combined | ~10.8% |
What Did Ace Hardware Just Announce?
Ace Hardware held its first-ever Upfront event at Wrigley Field in Chicago at the end of August, roughly a year after launching its RedVest Media network [2]. The retailer used the event to add an expanded DoorDash partnership (sponsored ads and sponsored brands inside the delivery app), influencer marketing through Ace-vetted creators, weather-triggered programmatic ads, and an audience library built around DIY homeowners [2].
“We are not going to beat Home Depot and Lowe's on level of spend, but we will beat them on consistency being our superpower.”
The scale case is real even if it's not Amazon-sized: over 5,300 stores, 80 million loyalty members, and 80% of US households within a 10-minute drive of a location [2]. Website traffic is up 26% year over year, and app shoppers visit twice as often and spend twice as much as other customers [2].
Is There Evidence This Actually Works Below Amazon Scale?
Ace isn't the only proof point. Costco's marketing chief reported a 14:1 return on ad spend and a 45% increase in digital sales for a Kimberly-Clark campaign run through its retail media business, alongside a 27% rise in ecommerce traffic [3]. Chewy has said one in three ad clicks on its platform ends in a purchase [3]. Target Roundel's ad sales are growing at a double-digit percentage year over year [3].
None of those retailers are competing with Amazon on total spend. They're each making the case, in their own numbers, that a smaller, more targeted audience can still deliver returns advertisers will pay for.
What Should Commerce Platforms Take From This?
The concentration numbers describe where the money is going. They don't describe where the building is happening. Nearly every mid-market and specialty retailer with real first-party data, from Ace Hardware to Costco to Chewy, is standing up some version of a retail media business this year.
DoorDash and Instacart are included in that count: each already generates roughly $1 billion a year in US ad revenue of its own, outside the traditional retail-media category [1].
For a platform provider, that's the more durable signal than the market-share table. The retailers still investing below the Amazon-Walmart tier aren't trying to out-scale them. They're betting that owned audience data, wherever it lives, is worth monetizing on its own terms.
Sources
- [1]EMarketer, FAQ on retail media networks: How marketers should allocate budgets in 2026 — emarketer.com
- [2]Retail Dive, Ace Hardware: 'We're in the business of building national brands — retaildive.com
- [3]Digital Commerce 360, Recap: The biggest moves retailers with retail media networks made in 2025 — digitalcommerce360.com
